Political Commentary

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake is scheduled to make his first international visit to India this week.  This is expected to be followed by a visit to China in close order.  The president, and the country itself, is walking a tightrope between these two Asian giants, one which is the world’s second largest economy and other its fifth largest.  Both of them see the island of Sri Lanka as a strategic location for their geopolitical aims.  In the case of India, the stakes are particularly high as it does not wish China to pose a military challenge to it in the south when it is a belligerent power in the north where the two countries have gone to war over territory each claims for itself.

Delivering his inaugural policy statement to Parliament, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake dealt mostly with the economy and, in particular, the IMF agreement. The problem he faces is that the former government agreed to terms with the IMF that did not consider the impact on the people, but gave priority to meeting fiscal targets. The President acknowledged that the government had no alternative but to continue with it as the country had gone too far down the road to change direction. He said, “The negotiations had already been ongoing for more than two years. If we were to restart discussions on the restructuring programme for an extended period it will be impossible for us to move the economy forward…”

The political avalanche that swept the electoral landscape due to the demand for change was unprecedented. In some electorates the majority achieved by the NPP exceeded 70 percent. The overall majority in the country was 61 percent. The avalanche swept aside many who had earned names for themselves on account of their long years of commitment to influence policies in the national interest. In their place will be a host of much younger persons who will come in with their ideals and hopes for positive change but with little experience of governance and even administration. The government is aware of this issue and has arranged for a three-day workshop on parliamentary procedures, session activities and the functioning of committees.

The government is aware as much as anyone else that the country continues to be in an extremely vulnerable situation with the possibility of reversal to a state of economic decline a possible scenario. Both national and international experts have pointed this out with the IMF saying that the country is poised at knife’s edge. The government’s care taken in navigating the sitiuation has included accepting the IMF package, which the main opposition party is making so bold as to reject, but which the former government negotiated and considered to be its signal triumph. The government has also not been engaging in any high cost and self-interested activities unlike its predecessors who sooner rather than later made major wasteful expenditures.

The National People’s Party’s main attraction at the presidential election, and one of its key campaign promises, was to bring a stop to the corruption that has increasingly held the country in its thrall. Large scale corruption from top to bottom and encompassing both the public and private sectors became normalized following the opening up of the economy in the late 1970s. Huge development projects and foreign aid provided opportunities for corruption to those in positions of power. The collapse of the economy in 2022 and accompanying hardships to the masses of people has stiffened the resolve of the general population to get rid of corruption and those implicated in it. As a political party that never wielded political power, only the NPP, among front running parties, was spared the blame.

The government is being very rational in its actions whether in dealing with the economy, the travel advisories or the reconciliation process, and is reaping the rewards. Its victory at the local council election in Elpitiya is an indication that its popularity after a month in power is continuing and that it is not confined to President Anura Kumara Dissanayake alone but extends to the NPP itself. The margin of victory on this occasion was much greater than the last time it faced such local elections. The NPP was able to increase the number of its seats to 15 from two in the last council, which was elected in 2019, and obtained nearly 48 percent of the vote compared to six percent in 2019.

The new government’s approach to major national issues appears to be one of caution and of continuing in the direction set by its predecessor. This is most clearly visible in its adherence to the IMF agreement and its strict conditions. The government has also retained key officials dealing with the economy despite having subjected them to criticism in the run-up to the presidential election. The government has also adopted the same cautious approach with regard to the most immediate international challenge it faced in the form of the UNHRC Resolution 50/1, which came up for decision in Geneva last week. The government adopted the same policy as practised by its two predecessor governments headed by presidents Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Ranil Wickremesinghe, though it framed its rejection of the resolution in more conciliatory language.

Diplomatic missions that took a keen interest in the outcome of the presidential election have lost no time in reaching out to President Anura Kumara Dissanayake after his victory. Prior to the election it appeared that former president Ranil Wickemesinghe was the favourite of the Western bloc of countries. They made frequent public statements commending the president for his handling of the economy which were supplemented by similar supportive statements by the IMF. The Wickremesinghe government also made a special effort to be identified with Western-led initiatives including the promise of participating in naval operations in the Red Sea despite having an ill-equipped ship.

Public support for the government after the presidential election is on the rise. The first actions of the government have been appreciated by the general public. These include the exposure of former presidential advisers and their vehicles, the investigation ordered into the visa and passport controversies not to mention the peaceful conduct of the post-election celebrations which did not include any taking of revenge against those who had been in power. This is indeed a break with the past when the victors went on the rampage against their political opponents and included innocent ethnic and religious minorities in their frenzy.

The extraordinary events that took place during 2022 have reached their denouement at the recently concluded presidential election.  The Aragalaya protests that lasted for over three months in the middle of 2022 that were spearheaded by youth and became a mighty protest movement by tens of thousands of people from all walks of life and all parts of the country finally drove the then president and government from power.  But as the president and government they forced out had more than two years of their terms remaining, being elected in 2019 and 2020 respectively, the protestors could only force the government to resign. They could not replace it with a government of their choice until elections were due again, which happened on September 21.

As the final lap of the presidential election campaign comes to its close at midnight on Wednesday, there is no certainty about the outcome. The only certainty is that it will be one of three candidates—incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa or NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake. The other 35 candidates including the young scion of the Rajapaksa family and candidate of the SLPP are at best “also-rans.” But even they are hopeful. There appears to be a substantial number of voters who are undecided, and their hope is that those votes will come their way. Indeed, the principle of the “echo chamber” is working to the fullest extent at this election.

The effort of the March 12 Movement, a civil society collective, to bring presidential candidates onto one platform and share their visions and hopes with the general population was successful in its second round. All six of the presidential candidates who had been scheduled for the debate participated as expected and shared their visions and aspirations for the future. Their message went through the electronic and mass media to the general public. Although titled as a “presidential debate” the structure of the programme was different from that practiced in the United States, where the presidential candidates engage in verbal sparring with one another. The Sri Lankan version was to pose the same question to each of the presidential candidates and have them answer within a set time limit.

The ITAK endorsement of Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa will give a significant boost to his campaign for the presidency which has been steadily growing stronger, drawing massive crowds and reflected in improvements in public opinion polls. As the main component party of the Tamil National Alliance, the ITAK commands considerable political weight in terms of its ability to muster the Tamil vote. Also, the ITAK enjoys credibility with the international community as it consistently engages with them in order to obtain justice for the Tamil people. By endorsing the Opposition leader, the ITAK joins the main parties of the Muslim and Malaiyaha (Indian origin) Tamil minorities who have already done so.

The question of the economy, the economic development path to be followed and who is best suited to lead the country at this time are the most discussed issues at the present time. But another important issue that has contributed to the economic and other problems the country faces and which has proved difficult to resolve will soon intrude on the discussion. At the same time as the election campaign is in full swing, the sessions of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva are also going to commence soon. The Issue of Sri Lanka’s conformity with the UNHRC resolutions that have been making their regular appearance since 2009 will be taken up at these sessions. Those resolutions are based on the international community’s assessment that successive Sri Lankan governments have not dealt in an acceptable manner with the human rights violations of the past.

The government’s decision to provide every MP with two repeated weapons is an indication of concern about an escalation of violence that might target parliamentarians as the election approaches. A defence ministry letter to the parliamentary secretariat states that in view of the violence of the Aragalaya period, a decision has been made to provide every MP with two repeater weapons for which they need to make payment. This is in addition to the semi-automatic pistol which MPs are entitled to obtain for personal protection. The shotguns obtained through this facility can be retained even in the event the MP exits Parliament, on the basis that the licence is maintained and renewed annually.

With little over a month before presidential elections are due, the speculations about elections not being held have come to a halt which is a testament to the democratic spirit in the country. The election commission has invited Commonwealth and EU election monitors to observe the elections. Political parties and parliamentarians alike are publicly committing themselves to one candidate or to the other. Assertions such as the importance of implementing the IMF agreement rather than holding elections are no longer to be heard. On the contrary, the election campaign is in full swing and includes promises such as to implement the IMF agreement after the elections with amendments.