Political Commentary

Looking back at the past year, the anxiety among influential sections of the population that the NPP government would destabilise the country has largely been dispelled. There was concern that a government led by the JVP might not be respectful of private property in the Marxist tradition. These fears have not materialised. The transition of power was smooth, with no upheavals and no breakdown of governance. This continuity has contributed to trust building. Smooth political transitions following decisive electoral change are widely regarded as indicators of democratic consolidation rather than disruption. Democratic legitimacy is strengthened when new governments respect inherited institutions rather than seek to dismantle them. On this score, the government’s first year has been reassuring.

The government is rebuilding the cyclone-devastated lives, livelihoods and infrastructure in the country after the immense destruction caused by Cyclone Ditwah. The President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has been providing exceptional leadership by going into the cyclone affected communities in person, to mingle directly with the people there and to offer encouragement and hope to them. A president who can be in the midst of people when they are suffering and in sorrow is a true leader. In a political culture where leaders have often been distant from the everyday hardships of ordinary people, this visible presence would have a reassuring psychological effect.

Some opposition political parties have strived hard to turn the disaster of Cyclone Ditwah to their advantage. A calamity of such unanticipated proportions ought to have enabled all political parties to come together to deal with this tragedy. Failure to do so would indicate both political and moral bankruptcy. The main issue they have forcefully brought up is the government’s failure to take early action on the meteorological department’s warnings. The opposition even convened a meeting of their own with former president Ranil Wickremesinghe and other senior politicians who shared their experience of dealing with natural and man-made disasters of the past, and the present government’s failures to match them.

Sri Lanka was one of four Asian countries to be hit by cyclones at virtually the same time. The international media reported that cyclone-fueled downpours battered parts of Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia while Sri Lanka was struck by a separate storm. In those countries too, which are visited more regularly by cyclones than Sri Lanka, the death toll reached the hundreds. The death toll is presently 390 with a similar number remaining missing. The final death toll is likely to be a multiple of this figure as hitherto inaccessible place are reached. The full scale of the disaster wreaked on Sri Lanka by Cyclone Ditwah is still to be realised. Initial assessments indicate that more than 20,000 homes have been destroyed. Over 200 roads remain impassable, at least 10 bridges have been damaged, and sections of the rail network and national power grid affected.

The government has been continuously demonstrating an ambivalence to the implementation of the 13th Amendment to the constitution under which the provincial council system has been established. In its election manifesto, the NPP said it did not agree that provincial councils were the answer to the ethnic conflict. However, it also recognised that the Tamil and Muslim communities believed the provincial council system was in their interests. Therefore, the NPP promised to continue with it until they replaced it with something better. Government leaders have been articulating the same view more recently as well. They have also been issuing ambivalent statements on the timing of provincial council elections. The current position of the government appears to be that they will conduct the elections after the redemarcation of electorates takes place.

The budget for 2026 proposed by the government has been generally well received. The Ceylon Chamber of Commerce praised the plan, with its chairperson Krishan Balendra stating that “from a prrivate-sector perspective this Budget provides stability” and emphasising that “with the steps that were taken and the discipline we have seen since 2022, Sri Lanka avoided going down the same path as countries that suffered years of high inflation and collapsing exchange rates. This budget continues that stability.” On the opposition side, Harsha de Silva of the SJB acknowledged that the government “has shown prudence in aligning with international financial institutions”, even though his party will continue to scrutinise the human cost of the measures and the absence of a clear programme to achieve growth.

This past October 30 marked the 35th anniversary of a mass crime that has all but faded from public memory. The British High Commission, in collaboration with Collective for Historical Dialogue & Memory hosted a documentary screening and panel discussion to mark 35 years since the expulsion of Northern Muslims. On that day in 1990 the entire Muslim population of the Northern Province was ordered by the LTTE to leave their homes within hours. In Jaffna, the cultural capital of the Tamil people, families were given only two hours to leave. In other parts of the North the time ranged from one to two days. They were told they could take only their clothes and a few belongings. The LTTE justified the expulsion of the Muslims by claiming it was a security measure against collaboration with the government. At checkpoints, LTTE cadres seized money, jewellery, and deeds to property. Some women had their wedding necklaces pulled from their necks. Those who attempted to reason or plead were told that everything earned in Tamil Eelam belonged to Tamil Eelam.

Once again, Sri Lanka is at the crossroads. After decades of missed opportunities and delayed reforms, the conditions are there for a lasting political resolution of the ethnic conflict. The NPP government has the chance to resolve the country’s longest and most divisive conflict through Sri Lankan institutions, on its own terms. The government holds a two-thirds majority in parliament that allows it to amend the constitution and introduce the reforms that past governments promised but failed to deliver. It came to power on the back of a popular demand for system change, and the public expectation that followed that election was not for minor adjustments but for a deep restructuring of the state. The opposition is neither strong nor dominated by the racist and extremist voices that in the past sabotaged every attempt at reconciliation.

The present government is keenly aware it came to office with an overwhelming mandate from the people that is widely interpreted as one for “system change”. Its leaders often speak as if this mandate is a form of ownership, held in trust by them. This attitude is creating problems for both the government and the country. In democratic theory, legitimacy arises not solely from electoral victory but from the ongoing consent and participation of all citizens. The principle of democracy entails governance that reflects the will of the people, not just the majority, and ensures that minority voices are heard and respected.

In contrast to intolerance in governance and towards others who are deemed to be outsiders that is increasingly being manifested in the world, Sri Lanka is taking a different path. It is adopting an inclusive approach to all communities that is in the national interest and is winning international support. The country’s recent conduct at the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) is a case in point. Rather than forcing a vote that would have been divisive and that would have pitted Sri Lanka against the Western countries promoting the resolution, the government opted for cooperation over confrontation. By doing so it signaled to the international community that the country is not taking sides internationally and prefers engagement and dialogue to confrontation and defiance.

The government is investing its time and money in northern development in a way that no previous government has in a long while. The topmost leaders of the government no less, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Leader of the House Bimal Rathnayake, have been spending a great deal of their time and effort in the north. During their visits they meet face to face with persons from different walks of life and launch new development projects that will benefit the people. These face-to-face engagements signify not only physical connectivity but the rebuilding of trust between the government and the people of this once war-torn area of the country. Last week Minister Rathnayake was in Jaffna to launch the widening of the access road to the Kurikadduwan Jetty which is launching point of ferries (boats) that take passengers to the small islands off Jaffna.

There is a renewed energy visible in the North. Government officials from the North affirm there is reason for cautious optimism. Development activity is more visible now than at any point since the end of the war. A government officer remarked that President Anura Kumara Dissanayake obtained around 27,000 votes in the Jaffna district during the last presidential election, but if he were to contest again today, he might receive 200,000. This may be one person’s opinion but it reflects a positive response to gestures of inclusion and practical delivery of services long denied. It also reflects a rising confidence in the president due to his policies that speak of equal treatment and its rejection of ethnic division as a tool of politics.

A toned-down UN resolution on Sri Lanka now appears likely at the current session of the Human Rights Council. The government would prefer that the periodic scrutiny of its human rights record be wound down. The government would much rather have this thrice yearly procedure come to a permanent end without having to provide answers to the reports of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and to member countries of the UNHRC. However, the international human rights community is not prepared to let Sri Lanka slip off without fulfilling promises made in successive resolutions and by past governments. Long unresolved issues continue such as missing persons, long term prisoners, militarization of the north and east and the absence of devolution of power, to mention but a few.

Sri Lanka has reason to be satisfied with the response it is receiving from the international community. Three different international monitoring bodies have chosen to give the government good reports. The first was the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) based in Sweden. Its Global State of Democracy Index for 2025 saw Sri Lanka jump 15 places since last year to 58th out of 173 countries. Last year Sri Lanka was in the 73rd place. That rise reflects gains in elected government, freedom of expression and press freedoms. The report also stated that Sri Lanka ranked even higher and in the top 25 percent of all countries regarding civic engagement and electoral participation.

Since the war ended bloodily on the military battlefield in 2009, Sri Lanka has been subjected to repeated and increasingly intrusive scrutiny by the international community that has rankled successive governments and induced them to react defensively. This year’s UN Human Rights Council session is no different, with fresh emphasis on accountability and reconciliation. Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath will be representing Sri Lanka at the UNHRC’s 60th session that commenced this week. The government will be calling on the international community to give it the space to continue with its programme to advance the rights and wellbeing of all Sri Lankans.

For decades voters have heard promises of integrity, justice and accountability. These promises have come with every election, but they have invariably ended in disappointment. Investigations have faltered, commissions have been wound up, and the very leaders who promised to end corruption and impunity have too often joined the ranks of those who perpetuated them. The NPP government is now making the point that it will do its utmost to deliver on its promises and commitments. The arrest of former president Ranil Wickremesinghe on charges of mis-spending government resources was perhaps to make this point.