Political Commentary

The government has two sets of problems coming from the past, one external to it and the other internal, but both interconnected. The external problems include the vulnerable state of the economy which is on the mend by any objective standard. But the government is liable to face growing public disenchantment unless the benefits of development are more widely distributed. However, the last government’s negotiations with international creditors and the agreement with the IMF leave little room for the new government to manoeuvre. The reduction in the debt that was negotiated was around 20 percent overall, which is significantly less than obtained historically from similarly positioned countries. In 2020, Argentina restructured $65 billion in foreign bonds, securing a 50 percent reduction in debt payments over the next decade.

Among the important promises of the NPP government to the people has been to address the problem of corruption and waste. This was the centrepiece of the Aragalaya protests that brought down the government in 2022. The government made many other promises too when it was in the opposition. But unlike in the case of these other promises, such as to reduce the cost of living, the promise to reduce corruption and waste is within the power of the government to a greater extent than to bring down the cost of living which is determined by external factors more than by internal ones. The government has cut down on its costs considerably. Its celebrations of its electoral victory and swearing in of the new president and parliament was on a low key. The president took only a small delegation with him on his first official trip abroad to India.

Downtown Colombo and especially its upmarket commercial areas sparkled, and will continue to do so, in the night this Christmas season until the grand finale on New Year’s Eve. There is little indication that this city of night lights had experienced dire economic collapse just three years ago. The long lines of vehicles that once queued up for fuel outside petrol stations are overshadowed the much longer lines of traffic crawling on the way to the centre of celebrations at Galle Face Green, once the epicentre of the Aragalaya protests that brought down the government and had the president fleeing the country.

The participation of Deputy Minister of National Integration, Muneer Mulaffar, in a conference on “Building a peaceful pluralistic Sri Lanka through Social Cohesion and Coexistence” organized by the Association of War Affected Women (AWAW), together with other peacebuilding organisations, was the highlight of the event. The Minister spoke eloquently on the government’s commitment to national integration. The event was attended by more than 150 participants, drawn from clergy of all religions, civil society, the academic community and several embassies. The Minister’s participation and speech on the occasion gave two important signals to the participants and the country at large. One message was that the government considered the national reconciliation process to be one that merited its time and effort. The other message was that the task of civil society and citizens was important for the wellbeing of the country.

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s statement that the government will not permit the erosion of its mandate for accountable government in the context of the resignation of the Speaker of Parliament is on track with the promises made during the course of the elections that brought the NPP to power. The President reaffirmed his commitment to maintaining public trust, stating his government will take decisive action against any wrongdoing, regardless of rank, and emphasised the government’s mission to uphold the people’s mandate and ensure accountability at all levels. This is an indication that the government will be pursuing its anti-corruption agenda which will help it to retain its support base amongst the people. It will also offer the opportunity to legally and legitimately neutralize or incapacitate political rivals who will stoop to any level to come back to power, if they can be proven to have engaged in corruption.

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake is scheduled to make his first international visit to India this week.  This is expected to be followed by a visit to China in close order.  The president, and the country itself, is walking a tightrope between these two Asian giants, one which is the world’s second largest economy and other its fifth largest.  Both of them see the island of Sri Lanka as a strategic location for their geopolitical aims.  In the case of India, the stakes are particularly high as it does not wish China to pose a military challenge to it in the south when it is a belligerent power in the north where the two countries have gone to war over territory each claims for itself.

Delivering his inaugural policy statement to Parliament, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake dealt mostly with the economy and, in particular, the IMF agreement. The problem he faces is that the former government agreed to terms with the IMF that did not consider the impact on the people, but gave priority to meeting fiscal targets. The President acknowledged that the government had no alternative but to continue with it as the country had gone too far down the road to change direction. He said, “The negotiations had already been ongoing for more than two years. If we were to restart discussions on the restructuring programme for an extended period it will be impossible for us to move the economy forward…”

The political avalanche that swept the electoral landscape due to the demand for change was unprecedented. In some electorates the majority achieved by the NPP exceeded 70 percent. The overall majority in the country was 61 percent. The avalanche swept aside many who had earned names for themselves on account of their long years of commitment to influence policies in the national interest. In their place will be a host of much younger persons who will come in with their ideals and hopes for positive change but with little experience of governance and even administration. The government is aware of this issue and has arranged for a three-day workshop on parliamentary procedures, session activities and the functioning of committees.

The government is aware as much as anyone else that the country continues to be in an extremely vulnerable situation with the possibility of reversal to a state of economic decline a possible scenario. Both national and international experts have pointed this out with the IMF saying that the country is poised at knife’s edge. The government’s care taken in navigating the sitiuation has included accepting the IMF package, which the main opposition party is making so bold as to reject, but which the former government negotiated and considered to be its signal triumph. The government has also not been engaging in any high cost and self-interested activities unlike its predecessors who sooner rather than later made major wasteful expenditures.

The National People’s Party’s main attraction at the presidential election, and one of its key campaign promises, was to bring a stop to the corruption that has increasingly held the country in its thrall. Large scale corruption from top to bottom and encompassing both the public and private sectors became normalized following the opening up of the economy in the late 1970s. Huge development projects and foreign aid provided opportunities for corruption to those in positions of power. The collapse of the economy in 2022 and accompanying hardships to the masses of people has stiffened the resolve of the general population to get rid of corruption and those implicated in it. As a political party that never wielded political power, only the NPP, among front running parties, was spared the blame.

The government is being very rational in its actions whether in dealing with the economy, the travel advisories or the reconciliation process, and is reaping the rewards. Its victory at the local council election in Elpitiya is an indication that its popularity after a month in power is continuing and that it is not confined to President Anura Kumara Dissanayake alone but extends to the NPP itself. The margin of victory on this occasion was much greater than the last time it faced such local elections. The NPP was able to increase the number of its seats to 15 from two in the last council, which was elected in 2019, and obtained nearly 48 percent of the vote compared to six percent in 2019.

The new government’s approach to major national issues appears to be one of caution and of continuing in the direction set by its predecessor. This is most clearly visible in its adherence to the IMF agreement and its strict conditions. The government has also retained key officials dealing with the economy despite having subjected them to criticism in the run-up to the presidential election. The government has also adopted the same cautious approach with regard to the most immediate international challenge it faced in the form of the UNHRC Resolution 50/1, which came up for decision in Geneva last week. The government adopted the same policy as practised by its two predecessor governments headed by presidents Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Ranil Wickremesinghe, though it framed its rejection of the resolution in more conciliatory language.

Diplomatic missions that took a keen interest in the outcome of the presidential election have lost no time in reaching out to President Anura Kumara Dissanayake after his victory. Prior to the election it appeared that former president Ranil Wickemesinghe was the favourite of the Western bloc of countries. They made frequent public statements commending the president for his handling of the economy which were supplemented by similar supportive statements by the IMF. The Wickremesinghe government also made a special effort to be identified with Western-led initiatives including the promise of participating in naval operations in the Red Sea despite having an ill-equipped ship.

Public support for the government after the presidential election is on the rise. The first actions of the government have been appreciated by the general public. These include the exposure of former presidential advisers and their vehicles, the investigation ordered into the visa and passport controversies not to mention the peaceful conduct of the post-election celebrations which did not include any taking of revenge against those who had been in power. This is indeed a break with the past when the victors went on the rampage against their political opponents and included innocent ethnic and religious minorities in their frenzy.

The extraordinary events that took place during 2022 have reached their denouement at the recently concluded presidential election.  The Aragalaya protests that lasted for over three months in the middle of 2022 that were spearheaded by youth and became a mighty protest movement by tens of thousands of people from all walks of life and all parts of the country finally drove the then president and government from power.  But as the president and government they forced out had more than two years of their terms remaining, being elected in 2019 and 2020 respectively, the protestors could only force the government to resign. They could not replace it with a government of their choice until elections were due again, which happened on September 21.

As the final lap of the presidential election campaign comes to its close at midnight on Wednesday, there is no certainty about the outcome. The only certainty is that it will be one of three candidates—incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa or NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake. The other 35 candidates including the young scion of the Rajapaksa family and candidate of the SLPP are at best “also-rans.” But even they are hopeful. There appears to be a substantial number of voters who are undecided, and their hope is that those votes will come their way. Indeed, the principle of the “echo chamber” is working to the fullest extent at this election.