Political Commentary

The government is being very rational in its actions whether in dealing with the economy, the travel advisories or the reconciliation process, and is reaping the rewards. Its victory at the local council election in Elpitiya is an indication that its popularity after a month in power is continuing and that it is not confined to President Anura Kumara Dissanayake alone but extends to the NPP itself. The margin of victory on this occasion was much greater than the last time it faced such local elections. The NPP was able to increase the number of its seats to 15 from two in the last council, which was elected in 2019, and obtained nearly 48 percent of the vote compared to six percent in 2019.

The new government’s approach to major national issues appears to be one of caution and of continuing in the direction set by its predecessor. This is most clearly visible in its adherence to the IMF agreement and its strict conditions. The government has also retained key officials dealing with the economy despite having subjected them to criticism in the run-up to the presidential election. The government has also adopted the same cautious approach with regard to the most immediate international challenge it faced in the form of the UNHRC Resolution 50/1, which came up for decision in Geneva last week. The government adopted the same policy as practised by its two predecessor governments headed by presidents Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Ranil Wickremesinghe, though it framed its rejection of the resolution in more conciliatory language.

Diplomatic missions that took a keen interest in the outcome of the presidential election have lost no time in reaching out to President Anura Kumara Dissanayake after his victory. Prior to the election it appeared that former president Ranil Wickemesinghe was the favourite of the Western bloc of countries. They made frequent public statements commending the president for his handling of the economy which were supplemented by similar supportive statements by the IMF. The Wickremesinghe government also made a special effort to be identified with Western-led initiatives including the promise of participating in naval operations in the Red Sea despite having an ill-equipped ship.

Public support for the government after the presidential election is on the rise. The first actions of the government have been appreciated by the general public. These include the exposure of former presidential advisers and their vehicles, the investigation ordered into the visa and passport controversies not to mention the peaceful conduct of the post-election celebrations which did not include any taking of revenge against those who had been in power. This is indeed a break with the past when the victors went on the rampage against their political opponents and included innocent ethnic and religious minorities in their frenzy.

The extraordinary events that took place during 2022 have reached their denouement at the recently concluded presidential election.  The Aragalaya protests that lasted for over three months in the middle of 2022 that were spearheaded by youth and became a mighty protest movement by tens of thousands of people from all walks of life and all parts of the country finally drove the then president and government from power.  But as the president and government they forced out had more than two years of their terms remaining, being elected in 2019 and 2020 respectively, the protestors could only force the government to resign. They could not replace it with a government of their choice until elections were due again, which happened on September 21.

As the final lap of the presidential election campaign comes to its close at midnight on Wednesday, there is no certainty about the outcome. The only certainty is that it will be one of three candidates—incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa or NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake. The other 35 candidates including the young scion of the Rajapaksa family and candidate of the SLPP are at best “also-rans.” But even they are hopeful. There appears to be a substantial number of voters who are undecided, and their hope is that those votes will come their way. Indeed, the principle of the “echo chamber” is working to the fullest extent at this election.

The effort of the March 12 Movement, a civil society collective, to bring presidential candidates onto one platform and share their visions and hopes with the general population was successful in its second round. All six of the presidential candidates who had been scheduled for the debate participated as expected and shared their visions and aspirations for the future. Their message went through the electronic and mass media to the general public. Although titled as a “presidential debate” the structure of the programme was different from that practiced in the United States, where the presidential candidates engage in verbal sparring with one another. The Sri Lankan version was to pose the same question to each of the presidential candidates and have them answer within a set time limit.

The ITAK endorsement of Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa will give a significant boost to his campaign for the presidency which has been steadily growing stronger, drawing massive crowds and reflected in improvements in public opinion polls. As the main component party of the Tamil National Alliance, the ITAK commands considerable political weight in terms of its ability to muster the Tamil vote. Also, the ITAK enjoys credibility with the international community as it consistently engages with them in order to obtain justice for the Tamil people. By endorsing the Opposition leader, the ITAK joins the main parties of the Muslim and Malaiyaha (Indian origin) Tamil minorities who have already done so.

The question of the economy, the economic development path to be followed and who is best suited to lead the country at this time are the most discussed issues at the present time. But another important issue that has contributed to the economic and other problems the country faces and which has proved difficult to resolve will soon intrude on the discussion. At the same time as the election campaign is in full swing, the sessions of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva are also going to commence soon. The Issue of Sri Lanka’s conformity with the UNHRC resolutions that have been making their regular appearance since 2009 will be taken up at these sessions. Those resolutions are based on the international community’s assessment that successive Sri Lankan governments have not dealt in an acceptable manner with the human rights violations of the past.

The government’s decision to provide every MP with two repeated weapons is an indication of concern about an escalation of violence that might target parliamentarians as the election approaches. A defence ministry letter to the parliamentary secretariat states that in view of the violence of the Aragalaya period, a decision has been made to provide every MP with two repeater weapons for which they need to make payment. This is in addition to the semi-automatic pistol which MPs are entitled to obtain for personal protection. The shotguns obtained through this facility can be retained even in the event the MP exits Parliament, on the basis that the licence is maintained and renewed annually.

With little over a month before presidential elections are due, the speculations about elections not being held have come to a halt which is a testament to the democratic spirit in the country. The election commission has invited Commonwealth and EU election monitors to observe the elections. Political parties and parliamentarians alike are publicly committing themselves to one candidate or to the other. Assertions such as the importance of implementing the IMF agreement rather than holding elections are no longer to be heard. On the contrary, the election campaign is in full swing and includes promises such as to implement the IMF agreement after the elections with amendments.

Sri Lanka has so far been spared the riots and political instability that has rocked other countries facing debt repayment crises. Kenya and now Bangladesh have seen large scale rioting and popular uprisings that are directly the consequence of economic problems that have sharpened the pain felt by the masses of people. Sri Lanka too was in a similar situation at the time President Ranil Wickremesinghe took over the reins of government. The president’s handling of the security situation and economy, and the support he has obtained from the IMF to regain access to international loans, has won him plaudits from the international community. Ironically, the majority of Sri Lankan people, though patient and quiet, may be having a different view which may explain the president’s apparent reluctance to test his popularity at the presidential election.

Inspector General of Police Deshabandu Tennakoon finds himself at the centre of a controversy that goes to the heart of Sri Lanka’s democracy. The Supreme Court has directed that he should be restrained from acting in the position of head of police until the court has fully considered all the petitions submitted against his appointment. Much to the consternation of law abiding people the government has announced its decision not to act on the Supreme Court interim order restraining Deshabandu Tennakoon from functioning as the Inspector General of Police. Despite the ruling by the highest court in the land, the government insists that the Police IGP will continue to hold office which is not acceptable in a law governed society. The threat to democracy cannot be underestimated.

The issue of the proposed 22nd Amendment to the constitution which cast doubt about the holding of the presidential election in view of its requirement of a referendum and focus on the length of the president’s term of office has hopefully been dealt with. In his recent speech while opening the judicial complex in Galle, President Ranil Wickremesinghe went out of his way to assure his distinguished audience including judges of the Supreme Court of his commitment to democratic norms. He demonstrated his responsiveness to the concerns that have arisen from the 22nd Amendment which his own Minister of Justice Wijayadasa Rajapakshe sought to shelve until after the presidential election is held due to the concerns it had generated.

The question mark that hangs over the presidential election due in October this year is not going away. The answer to it keeps getting put off. The latest is the government’s proposed constitutional amendment to eliminate ambiguity in the term of the president from six to five years. The Supreme Court has thrice affirmed the legitimacy of the 19th Amendment which reduced the term of the presidency. Academic scholars such as Dr Nihal Jayawickrama have raised the quetion why nine years later, without any issue having been raised by the Supreme Court or by any other court or tribunal, or in parliament, or in any other forum, the government proposes to amend the constitution for the sole purpose of replacing the words “six years” with the words “five years”.

The deadline for presidential elections is fast approaching and the Election Commissioner will be empowered to declare the date of the election on July 17, just over a week from now. The election rallies are becoming larger and feistier. The two main opposition parties are showing their growing strength in the numbers attending their political rallies. The government too is unifying to meet the challenge. The most recent public meeting brought together the leading members of the ruling SLPP who have been thought to be at loggerheads. Many have resurfaced into the public domain, which they lost when the economy collapsed and they had to go into hiding.